Construction industry will complete 18,000 homes this year: Help to Buy Scheme beginning to deliver supply in first-time buyer market

The Construction Industry Federation (CIF) estimates that the level of new residential completions for 2017 will be in the region of 18,000 units with this figure expected to increase to approximately 20,000 units in 2018. This compares to 12,666 units in 2015, representing an overall increase of 42% from 2015-2017. 

 

CIF Director General Tom Parlon said:

“The ESRI has recently upgraded the desired housing output target from 25,000 per year to 35,000. Commencements last year were around 13,200.  This shows the challenge we as a society are facing in terms of housing.  This behoves the Government to do everything in its power to help the industry increase supply in a sustainable fashion.  The Help to Buy scheme is part of the solution and is having a positive impact on the ability of first time buyers to purchase a new home.  There’s a noticeable increase in the percentage of starter homes being constructed and subsequently purchased compared to one year ago.   House price increases are not been driven by activity in this segment, all agree that a lack of supply in the second hand home market is driving inflation. The first-time buyer grant is helping increase supply for this segment which in time will take them out of the second hand market.  Overall, as ever, increasing supply from its unsustainably low base toward the ESRI’s target is the solution.

In addition, data from the Irish Banking and Payments Federation Ireland shows that in Q1 2017, 6,939 mortgages were drawn down, an increase of 14% on Q1 2016. The Construction Industry is responding with new housing supply, which will ultimately assist in easing the pent-up demand. However, it must also have certainty around investment decisions, a collaborative construction environment and the time to bring forward new supply to market.

Currently housebuilding, particularly outside Dublin, is often not viable as many housebuilders cannot gain access to finance at the right terms from banks or other sources. In order to ensure balanced regional development across Ireland and increase the industry’s capacity to deliver housing, it must be viable for construction companies to build.”

According to CIF analysis of house building activity levels throughout Q1 2017, the rolling 12 month figure shows an increase of +37.6%% in terms of overall commencements for the 12 month period to the end of March 2017. The total commencement figure for 2016 was 13,234.

In total 3,860 residential units were commenced in the 3 month period January to March 2017. These figures represent an increase of +33% (958 units) on the total number of units commenced during the same period in 2016.

Individual/One Off housing units represent just 26.7% of total commencements in the first 3 months of 2017, and increased by +33.7% on the same period in 2016.

Counties: Kildare (+236%), Louth (+163.6%), Meath (+166.5%), Wexford (+172.7%), Dublin City (+49.3%), South County Dublin (+83.4%), Galway City and County (+2800% and +86.8%) showed some of the largest increases in overall commencement numbers.

In total 3,896 residential units were completed in the 3 month period January to March 2017. With the rate of house completions in the first 3 months of the year representing a +23.9% increase in activity on the same period in 2016 and a +19% increase on the rolling 12 month period to the end of March 2017. The average monthly completion figure currently stands at 1,298 units.

The 3,896 residential units completed in first 3 months of 2017 can be broken down by type as follows:

  • Individual/One Off Units: 1,543 units or 39.6%
  • Scheme Units: 1,701 units or 43.7%
  • Apartments: 652 units or 16.7%

In total 3,786 residential units were registered under the HomeBond house building insurance scheme in the 5 month period January to May 2017. The figures represent an increase of +67.7% (1,529 units) in developer led activity nationally on the same period in 2016. The majority of housing units registered were in Dublin (2,100 units), Meath (587 units), Kildare (255 units), Cork (225) Limerick (121) and Wicklow (119 units).

 

TOTAL HOUSE COMPLETIONS BY COUNTY/CITY
First 3 Months: January – March 2017
County Jan-Mar 2017 Jan-Mar 2016 Change % Change  12 mths to end Mar 2017 12 mths to end Mar 2016 Change % Change
Carlow 32 24 8 33.3% 222 198 24 12.1%
Cavan 84 43 41 95.3% 351 284 67 23.6%
Clare 84 62 22 35.5% 401 346 55 15.9%
Cork 453 419 34 8.1% 1,851 1,579 272 17.2%
Donegal 134 134 0 0.0% 542 526 16 3.0%
Dublin 1,171 1,006 165 16.4% 4,399 3,245 1,154 35.6%
Galway 237 152 85 55.9% 902 700 202 28.9%
Kerry 90 71 19 26.8% 436 414 22 5.3%
Kildare 220 168 52 31.0% 867 785 82 10.4%
Kilkenny 83 32 51 159.4% 276 182 94 51.6%
Laois 46 53 -7 -13.2% 199 184 15 8.2%
Leitrim 47 28 19 67.9% 155 143 12 8.4%
Limerick 132 84 48 57.1% 527 446 81 18.2%
Longford 20 44 -24 -54.5% 149 179 -30 -16.8%
Louth 100 64 36 56.3% 397 318 79 24.8%
Mayo 80 79 1 1.3% 408 419 -11 -2.6%
Meath 206 113 93 82.3% 886 515 371 72.0%
Monaghan 41 37 4 10.8% 151 199 -48 -24.1%
Offaly 47 37 10 27.0% 175 181 -6 -3.3%
Roscommon 46 43 3 7.0% 213 208 5 2.4%
Sligo 51 33 18 54.5% 225 158 67 42.4%
Tipperary 93 74 19 25.7% 344 355 -11 -3.1%
Waterford 89 78 11 14.1% 360 398 -38 -9.5%
Westmeath 61 50 11 22.0% 249 224 25 11.2%
Wexford 137 143 -6 -4.2% 513 551 -38 -6.9%
Wicklow 112 73 39 53.4% 486 444 42 9.5%
TOTALS: 3,896 3,144 752 23.9% 15,684 13,181 2,503 19.0%
Completions Jan-Mar 2017 by type:
Total Individual Units 1,543 39.6%
Total Scheme Units 1,701 43.7%
Total Apartments 652 16.7%
Completions Jan-Mar 2017 by type & by local authority
Local Authoriy Individual House Scheme House Apartments
Carlow 14 17 1
Cavan 55 19 10
Clare 59 25 0
Cork 194 165 42
Donegal 92 36 6
D/L Rathdown 21 129 257
Fingal 30 318 14
Galway 130 52 20
Kerry 69 8 13
Kildare 53 160 7
Kilkenny 49 13 21
Laois 37 7 2
Leitrim 30 16 1
Limerick City & County 67 58 7
Longford 14 4 2
Louth 39 59 2
Mayo 65 12 3
Meath 49 145 12
Monaghan 34 5 2
Offaly 27 20 0
Roscommon 28 13 5
Sligo 40 6 5
South Dublin 19 117 74
Tipperary 60 26 7
Waterford City & County 51 30 8
Westmeath 40 13 8
Wexford 81 53 3
Wicklow 44 67 1
City Councils
Cork 11 38 3
Dublin 36 55 101
Galway 5 15 15
TOTALS 1,543 1,701 652          
Source: DoECLG

 

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF RESIDENTIAL UNITS COMMENCED
First 3 months: January – March 2017
Local Authority Jan-Mar 2017 Jan-Mar 2016 Change  % Change 12 mths to end Mar 2017 12 mths to end Mar 2016 Change % Change
Carlow County 8 11 -3 -27.3% 91 65 26 40.0%
Cavan County 23 24 -1 -4.2% 106 101 5 5.0%
Clare County 51 46 5 10.9% 205 137 68 49.6%
Cork City 43 63 -20 -31.7% 177 96 81 84.4%
Cork County 265 204 61 29.9% 1,391 851 540 63.5%
Donegal County 63 72 -9 -12.5% 301 236 65 27.5%
Dublin City 563 377 186 49.3% 1,805 1,124 681 60.6%
Dun-Laoghaire Rathdown 180 628 -448 -71.3% 816 1,397 -581 -41.6%
Fingal County 401 372 29 7.8% 1,721 1,950 -229 -11.7%
Galway City 58 2 56 2800.0% 157 41 116 282.9%
Galway County 127 68 59 86.8% 381 313 68 21.7%
Kerry County 81 45 36 80.0% 248 200 48 24.0%
Kildare County 373 111 262 236.0% 1,181 738 443 60.0%
Kilkenny County 43 30 13 43.3% 183 123 60 48.8%
Laois County 35 45 -10 -22.2% 172 134 38 28.4%
Leitrim County 8 2 6 300.0% 24 23 1 4.3%
Limerick City and County 75 62 13 21.0% 432 205 227 110.7%
Longford County 9 10 -1 -10.0% 51 23 28 121.7%
Louth County 145 55 90 163.6% 440 183 257 140.4%
Mayo County 59 37 22 59.5% 233 143 90 62.9%
Meath County 421 158 263 166.5% 1,291 492 799 162.4%
Monaghan County 41 26 15 57.7% 118 87 31 35.6%
Offaly County 49 19 30 157.9% 145 74 71 95.9%
Roscommon County 20 11 9 81.8% 88 52 36 69.2%
Sligo County 48 13 35 269.2% 112 47 65 138.3%
South Dublin County 321 175 146 83.4% 975 498 477 95.8%
Tipperary County 31 28 3 10.7% 136 106 30 28.3%
Waterford City and County 61 35 26 74.3% 249 164 85 51.8%
Westmeath County 30 15 15 100.0% 88 67 21 31.3%
Wexford County 90 33 57 172.7% 336 200 136 68.0%
Wicklow County 138 125 13 10.4% 539 442 97 21.9%
TOTALS: 3,860 2,902 958 33.0% 14,192 10,312 3,880 37.6%
Dublin Local Authorities 1,465 1,552 -87 -5.6% 5,317 4,969 348 7.0%
GDA – Greater Dublin Area 2,397 1,946 451 23.2% 8,328 6,641 1,687 25.4%
Of which one off units: Jan-Mar 2017 Jan-Mar 2016 Change % Change 12 mths to end Mar 2017 12 mths to end Mar 2016 Change % Change
Carlow County 8 11 -3 -27.3% 47 50 -3 -6.0%
Cavan County 19 17 2 11.8% 84 80 4 5.0%
Clare County 39 40 -1 -2.5% 144 123 21 17.1%
Cork City 5 1 4 400.0% 21 21 0 0.0%
Cork County 136 106 30 28.3% 568 464 104 22.4%
Donegal County 53 37 16 43.2% 227 188 39 20.7%
Dublin City 23 14 9 64.3% 75 62 13 21.0%
Dun-Laoghaire Rathdown 15 22 -7 -31.8% 111 102 9 8.8%
Fingal County 29 29 0 0.0% 112 123 -11 -8.9%
Galway City 4 2 2 100.0% 25 9 16 177.8%
Galway County 74 62 12 19.4% 286 254 32 12.6%
Kerry County 43 33 10 30.3% 193 150 43 28.7%
Kildare County 42 46 -4 -8.7% 204 183 21 11.5%
Kilkenny County 34 18 16 88.9% 152 98 54 55.1%
Laois County 29 14 15 107.1% 115 54 61 113.0%
Leitrim County 8 2 6 300.0% 24 23 1 4.3%
Limerick City and County 40 18 22 122.2% 160 96 64 66.7%
Longford County 9 10 -1 -10.0% 37 23 14 60.9%
Louth County 30 23 7 30.4% 115 94 21 22.3%
Mayo County 50 29 21 72.4% 200 126 74 58.7%
Meath County 80 47 33 70.2% 317 192 125 65.1%
Monaghan County 28 23 5 21.7% 91 79 12 15.2%
Offaly County 16 19 -3 -15.8% 81 74 7 9.5%
Roscommon County 20 9 11 122.2% 77 41 36 87.8%
Sligo County 18 13 5 38.5% 78 45 33 73.3%
South Dublin County 15 17 -2 -11.8% 71 40 31 77.5%
Tipperary County 31 24 7 29.2% 131 98 33 33.7%
Waterford City and County 22 28 -6 -21.4% 112 76 36 47.4%
Westmeath County 26 15 11 73.3% 82 62 20 32.3%
Wexford County 54 23 31 134.8% 210 139 71 51.1%
Wicklow County 31 19 12 63.2% 122 95 27 28.4%
TOTALS 1,031 771 260 33.7% 4,272 3,264 1,008 30.9%
Dublin Local Authorities 82 82 0 0.0% 369 327 42 12.8%
GDA – Greater Dublin Area 235 194 41 21.1% 1,012 797 215 27.0%

 

 

HOUSE BUILDING REGISTRATION STATISTICS
JANUARY – MAY 2017
County Jan-May 2017 Jan-May 2016 Change % Change 12 mths to end May 2017 12 mths to end May 2016 Change % Change
Carlow 14 5 9 180.0% 19 9 10 111.1%
Cavan 1 0 1 n/a 1 0 1 n/a
Clare 44 32 12 37.5% 61 52 9 17.3%
Cork 225 243 -18 -7.4% 647 525 122 23.2%
Donegal 4 0 4 n/a 22 15 7 46.7%
Dublin 2,100 1,152 948 82.3% 3,853 2,869 984 34.3%
Galway 77 44 33 75.0% 86 78 8 10.3%
Kerry 19 10 9 90.0% 43 23 20 87.0%
Kildare 255 212 43 20.3% 574 420 154 36.7%
Kilkenny 0 0 0 n/a 20 15 5 33.3%
Laois 1 0 1 n/a 2 0 2 n/a
Leitrim 0 0 0 n/a 0 0 0 n/a
Limerick 121 31 90 290.3% 253 114 139 121.9%
Longford 0 0 0 n/a 0 0 0 n/a
Louth 42 12 30 250.0% 76 45 31 68.9%
Mayo 3 5 -2 -40.0% 12 15 -3 -20.0%
Meath 587 202 385 190.6% 917 302 615 203.6%
Monaghan 9 2 7 350.0% 11 7 4 57.1%
Offaly 2 2 0 0.0% 7 4 3 75.0%
Roscommon 21 3 18 600.0% 21 4 17 425.0%
Sligo 4 0 4 n/a 4 0 4 n/a
Tipperary 9 9 0 0.0% 21 13 8 61.5%
Waterford 45 60 -15 -25.0% 133 82 51 62.2%
Westmeath 5 1 4 400.0% 7 14 -7 -50.0%
Wexford 79 47 32 68.1% 141 95 46 48.4%
Wicklow 119 185 -66 -35.7% 224 279 -55 -19.7%
TOTALS 3,786 2,257 1,529 67.7% 7,155 4,980 2,175 43.7%
Source: HomeBond                
Analysis: J. Mair, CIF.

 

 


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